The railway union EVG has warned that the planned entry of Italian private operator Italo into Germany’s long-distance market from 2028 could significantly weaken ICE and IC services in at least 16 cities off the core corridors.
Cross-subsidy under threat
The central concern is that Deutsche Bahn, which holds around 95% of the long-distance market with ICE and IC, could lose revenue on its most profitable flows. DB currently cross-subsidises loss-making destinations with income from trunk routes.
If competitors such as Italo capture the most lucrative train paths on corridors such as Munich–Frankfurt–Cologne–Dortmund and Munich–Berlin–Hamburg, this cross-subsidy would be undermined.
EVG argues this is a structural issue insufficiently addressed by European liberalisation. In Spain, where Renfe also relies on cross-subsidies, the outcome has included withdrawal of night trains and fare increases on some corridors.
According to EVG analysis cited by Der Spiegel, cities at risk of reduced or withdrawn services include Aachen, Augsburg, Bamberg, Chemnitz, Cottbus, Freiburg, Ingolstadt, Jena, Magdeburg, Münster, Norddeich Mole, Osnabrück, Rostock, Saarbrücken, Schwerin and Singen. In Trier, a planned IC link could be cancelled before launch.
Conditions for market access
EVG chairman Martin Burkert calls for “holistic solutions” in path allocation: any new entrant seeking access to profitable main lines should also serve smaller cities and regions.
“If Italo is allowed to cherry-pick the best paths and displace DB on core routes, our long-distance system will be dismantled,” Burkert said. Spain’s bundled path packages were designed precisely to prevent operators focusing solely on Madrid–Barcelona.
Italo CEO Gianbattista La Rocca says the project requires clear rules and long-term planning certainty, warning that delays in decision-making could see Germany miss the opportunity to introduce more competition. Italo aims to start with 30 trainsets and has not issued a detailed public response to EVG’s latest warning.
Deutsche Bahn has also argued that competition should not lead to loss of network connectivity. DB long-distance CEO Evelyn Palla is calling for stronger policy frameworks to avoid uncontrolled competition with negative passenger impacts. EVG further warns that expansion by other operators such as Flixtrain could create a three-way competitive squeeze on the network.